China will become the world's largest aviation services market by 2043
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Airbus released a global aviation service market forecast report for 2024-2043. Airbus predicts that China's civil aviation service market will surpass North America and Europe in the next 20 years to become the world's largest aviation service market, and its market value will increase from US$23 billion in 2024 to US$61 billion in 2043, nearly tripling.
In 2024, although China's civil aviation market faces many challenges, it has shown strong resilience as a whole, and the annual passenger volume is expected to exceed 700 million, a record high. At the same time, the full development of international comprehensive transportation hub cities has enhanced the linkage effect between domestic and international markets. In 2024, the value of the aviation service market will also increase from US$18.6 billion in 2023 to US$23 billion in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 24%.
The huge growth potential of China's fleet is the main driving force for the growth of the aviation service market. According to Airbus' global market forecast, by 2043, China's in-service fleet will reach 11,160, of which newly delivered passenger and cargo aircraft will reach 9,520, accounting for more than 20% of the global total demand during the same period, and the proportion of new aircraft used to replace the existing fleet will reach 26%.
In Airbus' latest global aviation service market forecast report, three business segments are covered, including "maintenance and repair", "training and operation" and fleet "optimization and upgrading".
In China, the "maintenance and repair" market segment accounts for 83% of the entire aviation service market. With the increase in the number of old aircraft and the expansion of the fleet, the cost of aircraft maintenance and repair will also increase, and it will also promote the development of aircraft disassembly and recycling business (CAGR 14.4%) and second-hand available aviation materials business. The "maintenance and repair" market will grow from US$19 billion to US$51 billion, with a CAGR of 5.3%.
The "optimization and upgrading" segment accounts for about 10%, and will grow from US$2 billion in 2024 to US$6 billion in 2043, with a CAGR of 5.6%, becoming the business segment with the highest growth rate. Among them, aviation interconnection services supported by digitalization will be a new growth engine, which is also the demand for the industry to improve quality, efficiency and sustainable development.
With the expansion of the service market and the application of new technologies, China will need more professional and technical talents to drive the growth of services in the "training and operation" business segment. According to Airbus's global aviation service market forecast, there will be a gap of 478,000 professionals in the next 20 years, including technicians, pilots and crew members, and the market value will also increase from US$2 billion in 2024 to US$4 billion in 2043, bringing more market demand for professional talent training and flight operation solutions.