IATA: Air cargo demand surged 10.8% in December
News from Civil Aviation Resources Network on February 1, 2024: Regular data from the International Air Transport Association (IATA, referred to as "IATA") global air cargo market shows that despite economic uncertainty, air cargo demand will rebound in 2023. The fourth quarter was particularly strong. Full-year demand is only slightly below 2022 and 2019 levels:
For the whole of 2023, global air cargo demand, in terms of freight ton kilometers (CTKs*), will decrease by 1.9% year-on-year in 2022 (international demand fell by 2.2%). A decrease of 3.6% compared to 2019 (international demand decreased by 3.8%).
Air cargo capacity (available freight ton kilometers, ACTKs) in 2023 will increase by 11.3% year-on-year in 2022 (international demand will increase by 9.6%). Compared with 2019 (pre-COVID-19), capacity increased by 2.5% (international demand was flat).
The performance in December 2023 was exceptionally strong: global demand increased by 10.8% compared with 2022 (international demand increased by 11.5%), the strongest annual growth performance in the past two years. Global air cargo capacity increased by 13.6% compared with the same period in 2022 (international capacity increased by 14.1%).
Changes in important indicators of the air cargo operating environment:
In October, global cross-border trade increased for the third consecutive month, reversing the previous downward trend.
Inflation rates in the United States and the European Union remained below 3.5% year-on-year in December, as measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI).
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The Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) of manufacturing output and new export orders - the two main indicators of global air cargo demand - continued to hover below the 50 boom-bust line in December, showing signs of contraction.
Mr. Willie Walsh, Director General of IATA, said: "Despite the political and economic challenges, the air cargo market in 2023 did not fall as rapidly as in 2022. In 2021, air cargo climbed to an unprecedented peak. Although demand in 2023 will be 3.6% lower than pre-epidemic levels, the significant strength last quarter shows that the market is stabilizing and demand is becoming more normalized, laying a solid foundation for the industry's success in 2024. But with the geopolitical and economic changes With continued instability, nothing can be taken for granted in the coming months."
Performance by region in 2023
Demand for Asia-Pacific airlines in 2023 will increase by 0.9% year-on-year in 2022 (international demand will decrease by 1.4%), and capacity will increase by 28.5% in 2023 (international capacity will increase by 16.6%). The region's airlines had the best global performance in December, with demand up 18.5% year-on-year in 2022 (international demand up 15.4%). Transport capacity increased by 31.1% year-on-year (international transport capacity increased by 22.9%).
North American airlines performed last among all regions, with demand in 2023 falling 5.7% year-on-year in 2022 (international demand falling 4.3%), and capacity increasing by 0.3% in 2023 (international capacity growing 2.7%). In December, demand increased by 2.0% year-on-year in 2022 (international demand increased by 5.9%). Capacity increased by 2.4% year-on-year (international capacity increased by 8.5%).
Demand for European airlines in 2023 will fall by 3.9% year-on-year in 2022 (international demand fell by 4.1%). Global and international capacity will both increase by 4.5% in 2023. In December, demand increased by 8.6% year-on-year in 2022 (international demand increased by 8.7%). Transport capacity increased by 7.4% year-on-year (international transport capacity increased by 7.5%). Airlines in the region continue to be significantly affected by the Russia-Ukraine conflict.
The global and international demand of Middle Eastern airlines in 2023 will increase by 1.6% year-on-year in 2022, and the capacity will increase by 13.5% in 2023 (international capacity will increase by 13.6%). In December, global and international demand increased by 18.3% year-on-year in 2022. Transport capacity increased by 17.7% year-on-year (international transport capacity increased by 17.8%).
Latin American airlines have the strongest year-on-year performance of all regions, with demand increasing by 2.0% in 2023 compared with 2022 (international demand increased by 1.9%). In 2023, airline capacity will increase by 13.2% (international capacity will increase by 16.9%). In December, demand increased by 6.4% year-on-year in 2022 (international demand increased by 6.3%). Transport capacity increased by 3.5% year-on-year (international transport capacity increased by 4.2%).
Demand for African airlines in 2023 will decrease by 1.8% year-on-year in 2022 (international demand will decrease by 2.0%), and capacity will increase by 5.6% in 2023 (international capacity will increase by 5.0%). In December, airlines in the region performed last, with demand down 1.2% compared to the same period in 2022 (international demand fell 1.4%). Capacity increased by 7.4% year-on-year (international capacity increased by 6.8%)
Red Sea shipping disrupted
Air cargo demand and earnings increased in November and December due to disruptions to Red Sea shipping*. After comparing the data (November 4, 2023 - December 9, 2023), the insights and conclusions are as follows:
Global air cargo demand increased by 1%, and revenue increased by 5%;
Demand in the Asia-Pacific region increased by 2%, and revenue increased by 6%;
Demand in China and the rest of the world increased by 1%, and revenue increased by 11%;
European demand remained stable, with earnings increasing by 3%;
Middle East demand remains unchanged, earnings increase 4%
Data in the second half of December showed that both demand and earnings returned to normal.
"Recent disruptions to maritime shipping in the Red Sea have prompted some shippers to turn to air cargo. Increased demand has led to a surge in air cargo earnings on related trade routes. A similar peak is expected in January as disruptions intensify. While not all cargo is suitable for air freight, But in exceptional circumstances, and for some of the most urgent cargo, there is no alternative. Air cargo is vital to the continuity of the global economy," Mr. Walsh noted.